Cycle analysis of the hottest propylene oxide indu

Weekly analysis of propylene oxide industrial chain (January 14, 2019)

weekly analysis of propylene oxide industrial chain (January 18, 2019)

January 21, 2019

market review this week

price changes of domestic propylene oxide (PO) upstream and downstream industrial chains this week (unit: yuanneng carries out tensile, contraction, zigzag, low cycle and high cycle fatigue, crack expansion, fracture mechanics experiments/ton under sine wave, 3-angle wave, square wave, trapezoidal wave, oblique wave and user-defined waveform)

data source: jinlianchuang

this week, the main actor in the propylene oxide production chain. During the week, the market of raw propylene and propylene was mainly weak and declining. In terms of propylene oxide, the device failure of main factories in Shandong was reduced, The supply side will continue to tighten, and the proportion of factory inventory to exports of emerging countries will also greatly increase. The shortage will be actively supported, and the offer will rise rapidly. In the fear of rising in downstream polyether, follow-up and cover positions. In the late week, terminal demand weakened, polyether fell secretly, and the air atmosphere is gradually rising. The focus is deadlocked. The supply is expected to increase next week, the demand side is difficult to support, and the propylene oxide industry chain is weak and downward

upstream propylene products:

this week, the domestic propylene market was dominated by weak decline, which stopped falling and rebounded in the late week. At the end of last week, the domestic propylene market mainly fell in a wide range, polypropylene futures were not driven enough, the spot market was generally empty, the downstream market trading enthusiasm was not high, the purchasing attitude was cautious, and the overall trading was light Chinese paint. At the beginning of this week, with the wide decline of propylene market over the weekend, the propylene price fell to a phased low, and the refinery's intention to protect the price grew. However, polypropylene futures plunged after the shock and rise, and the solid price of powder continued to decline. The downstream purchasing enthusiasm was low, and most refineries' second adjustment offer or obviously stable and secretly reduced shipments. During the weekend, due to the continuous rise of crude oil and polypropylene futures, the spot powder rebounded slightly, boosting the confidence of the industry. In addition, the refinery has strong intention to protect the price, and the downstream buying gas strengthened, driving the market to stop falling and rebound. This week, we haven't heard of any ground refinery start-up and shutdown. The operating rate of Shandong ground refinery was adjusted in a narrow range. The operating rate of Shandong ground refinery was 63.94%, up 0.14 percentage points month on month. As of today, the mainstream transaction in Shandong market is yuan/ton, and that in Jiangsu market is yuan/ton

propylene oxide Market:

this week, the domestic propylene oxide market continued to rise, with a weekly increase of about 400 yuan/ton. During the week, propylene, the raw material, fell weakly, and the cost side support was insufficient. However, in terms of propylene oxide plants, Jishen and Sinopec Changling continued to shut down for maintenance, Shandong Jinling plant fault was reduced to version load operation, the supply was reduced, the factory inventory was worry free, the offer continued to rise, and the downstream fear of rising mentality, actively followed up, The trading atmosphere was acceptable. In the late week, rigid demand was not sustainable enough, and the focus became stable

polyether Market:

domestic polyether cost continued to rise passively under pressure this week, but downstream demand was weak, and the enthusiasm to catch up was low. The shipment of main factories was under pressure, and the follow-up range was narrow. Although the cost of soft bubble polyether was upside down, there was no incentive to continue to increase under the condition of limited new factory orders. After the middle of this week, with the three ethers in poly 2 and sample basket difficult to regulate the emerging problems, the inflationary force gradually weakened, the stagnation of raw material Po temporarily stabilized, and the market entered the consolidation and digestion stage. However, the market will fall for a long time, and the air atmosphere in the market will gradually rise. With the continuous increase of shipping pressure, although the offer of main factories is stable, the actual order can be negotiated, and the high level in the early stage is slightly loose. As of the closing: the ex factory price of ordinary soft bubble apron cash in North China, Shandong and Northeast China is mostly yuan/ton; The cash delivery price of ordinary soft foam apron in East China is mostly between yuan/ton; The cash delivery price of ordinary soft bubble apron in South China is mostly yuan/ton

II

market outlook for next week

in terms of crude oil, the short-term trend will continue to remain volatile, and the trend is relatively optimistic. The economic situation of the world and major economic powers will still affect the nerves of the market, and it is expected that the support for the propylene market will be limited. On the supply side, the arrival of imported propylene in Hong Kong has returned to normal recently, but the refinery inventory is relatively low, pushing up enthusiasm is strong. From the demand side, the short-term downstream is actively replenishing and stocking, and the downstream is enthusiastic about stocking before the festival. However, with the gradual approach of the lunar new year, the enthusiasm for purchasing terminal raw materials may be reduced, and the powder Market and commencement may be significantly weakened. At the same time, from the downstream of chemicals, the recent unstable operation of individual units of butyl octanol and propylene oxide has reduced the demand. On the whole, the short-term downstream staged pre holiday stock demand is acceptable, and the refinery inventory remains controllable. The fundamentals are relatively optimistic, and the short-term or stable mid-term upward exploration is the main. However, as the Lunar New Year approaches, the terminal starts or continues to decrease. After the downstream completes the pre holiday stock, coupled with the transportation and other constraints, the market activity may be significantly reduced, and it is expected that the market upside space is relatively limited

it is expected that the domestic propylene oxide market will decline in a narrow range next week. This week, the negative pressure will be reduced or the factory devices will be repaired and gradually return to normal. The overall supply is expected to increase next week. In terms of demand, the factory will actively support the market due to the failure of the factory devices this week, and the downstream will actively cover positions due to fear of rising prices. The sustainability of rigid demand is insufficient. Next week, it is expected that the demand side will be flat, the air atmosphere will gradually rise, polyether will decline, and jinlianchuang expects, It is expected that propylene oxide will decline in a narrow range in China next week. It is suggested to pay attention to the plant dynamics and downstream replenishment dynamics

it is expected that the polyether market will loosen in a narrow range next week. In the short term next week, it is difficult to stabilize the high level of raw material Po and bear the risk of decline, but when the inventory pressure is low and propylene is expected to rebound, it is expected that the future downward space is limited. In addition, polyether has no new maintenance benefits for the time being, and the overall supply is still sufficient. However, the enthusiasm of downstream pre Holiday Stocking is weak and difficult to shake up. Under the shipping pressure, the high level in the post market is bound to bear the risk of decline. The short-term downstream is in a heavy mood to wait for holidays, and the enthusiasm of market entry operation is low. It is difficult to say that the market shipment situation is good