A new round of price increases for raw materials o

A new round of price rise of raw materials for power batteries is coming

Abstract: in the first half of 2017, negative electrode material enterprises mainly consumed inventory. The main domestic Korean Ministry of industry, trade and Resources announced the integration of Korean domestic research institutions and enterprises to promote the commercialization of graphene. Both enterprises and needle coke enterprises signed long-term purchase contracts with a contract period ranging from half a year to one year. Therefore, the price rise of needle coke has little impact on enterprises

Roland Berger, a world-renowned strategic management consulting company, recently released a report on the global electric vehicle development index in the second quarter of 2017. China ranked first in the world in the electric vehicle development index for the first time

China's new energy vehicles are showing a trend of rapid development. The latest data from relevant institutions showed that the production and sales of new energy vehicles were booming in the first half of the year. In the first half of the year, the cumulative production and sales volume were 212000 and 195000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 19.7% and 14.4% respectively. In June, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 65000 and 5 We increased investment attraction efforts to 90000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 43.4% and 33.0% respectively

spir indicates that due to the impact of the policy, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in the first half of the year were generally flat, and it is expected that they will grow rapidly in the second half of this year

the rapid growth of production and sales of new energy vehicles has also driven the rapid development of the power battery industry. Since 2014, the growth rates of the power battery industry have been 368%, 324% and 78.6% respectively. The development of new energy vehicles can not be separated from the power battery. As a core component, the cost of power battery accounts for 30% - 50% of the cost of the whole vehicle. For a long time, the high cost of battery has hindered the development of electric vehicles

the cost of power batteries depends on the price of raw materials. Since the beginning of this year, the cobalt price has maintained a sharp rise for a period of time, and recently there are signs of a return to the rising trend. Not only that, the prices of ternary cathode materials and cathode materials are on the rise

cobalt prices returned to the upward trend

the overall performance of cobalt prices in 2016 was stable. Until November 2016, the price of cobalt products began to soar, with a sharp rise of 76.35%. The average price of cobalt in the domestic market reached 376500 yuan/ton on February 20, up 27.99% from 294166.66 yuan/ton at the beginning of January. Although the cobalt price fell steadily in April, the price of cobalt products began to rise again since the end of June

the latest data from relevant data centers showed that on July 23, the latest price of cobalt was 397833.34 yuan/ton, up 9.00% in the last 60 days

due to the recent high temperature and low season in summer, some manufacturers shut down for maintenance, and the inventory of cobalt upstream enterprises is small, supporting the high price of cobalt. In addition, the rise in the price of raw materials and the price of acid and alkali materials necessary for production also led to the rise in cobalt prices

relevant institutions predict that the global demand for cobalt will continue to maintain a high growth rate, and the strengthening of the supervision of cobalt prices during and after the event will also increase accordingly. The relevant demand of the new energy vehicle industry chain is the biggest driver, but the cost, storage and consumption of cobalt are also very important incentives. The proved reserves of cobalt in China are about 80000 tons, accounting for 1.8% of the world's proved reserves, and the distribution of mines is extremely scattered. China consumes more than 30% of the world's Cobalt reserves. The largest cobalt reserves in the world are in the DRC, accounting for 48% of the world's Cobalt reserves. The annual production of cobalt metal in the DRC is 60000 tons, accounting for about 60% of the global cobalt production, close to China's total reserves

China's Cobalt reserves are small, its consumption is large, and its mining volume is also low. Cobalt's own factors determine its price. In addition to the high demand of the new energy vehicle industry, it is reasonable for cobalt prices to soar. The market expects that the demand for new energy vehicles downstream of cobalt will account for 20.3% in 2018, and the cobalt price is expected to continue to rise

needle coke prices soared

since the cobalt price soared wildly in the first half of this year, needle coke, the raw material of lithium cathode, began to win the baton. Needle coke is a kind of high-quality material, which is mainly used to produce high-power and ultra-high-power graphite electrodes and cathode materials for power lithium batteries

the survey found that in the first half of 2017, the price of needle coke soared, and the quotation increased from 4000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 20000 yuan/ton at present, with an increase of more than 400%. There are three main reasons:

1. The sudden increase in the graphite electrode Market

according to the survey, due to the national supply side reform to rectify the extensive iron and steel industry, the sharp rise in the demand for graphite electrodes directly drives the upstream raw material needle coke market

on March 9, 2017, the Ministry of industry and information technology, the national development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of environmental protection and other 16 ministries and commissions jointly issued the guiding opinions on using comprehensive standards to promote the withdrawal of backward production capacity in accordance with the law, pointing out that it is necessary to severely crack down on the illegal production and sale of "ground bar steel", and comprehensively dismantle the power frequency furnaces, medium frequency furnaces and other equipment that produce construction steel in accordance with the law. All major steel-making enterprises have changed to electric arc furnace. Graphite electrode, as a necessary product for electric arc furnace steelmaking, the demand for graphite electrode suddenly increased sharply, and the price rose from 18000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 65000 yuan/ton at the end of June, resulting in the needle coke market in short supply

2. The environmental protection stick is constantly waving

for reasons such as environmental protection rectification, the state ordered to shut down some low-end small needle coke production enterprises, and some needle coke production enterprises had equipment maintenance, so the production capacity could not be converted into output. The supply of needle coke is seriously insufficient, and the price continues to rise. It is expected that the shortage of supply will continue, and the price of needle coke is likely to rise further

3. Limited foreign imports

foreign needle coke production capacity is mainly distributed in the United States, Britain, Japan and South Korea, of which only Britain, Japan and South Korea export. At present, the United Kingdom is in the stage of equipment maintenance, and the production capacity cannot be released. However, the growth of China's plastic machinery industry in Japan has ushered in a golden period of rapid growth. South Korea's supply is also limited, and the total number of imports cannot meet the demand. Therefore, domestic supply is relatively tight

the price of negative electrode materials is almost certain to rise

since the second half of 2016, the price of raw material needle coke has increased significantly, but the price of domestic negative electrode materials has not increased significantly, mainly because domestic negative electrode leading enterprises have not increased their prices, and other enterprises have not increased their prices in order to stabilize market share; Moreover, in the first half of 2017, cathode material enterprises mainly consumed inventory. Domestic mainstream enterprises signed long-term purchase contracts with needle coke enterprises, and the contract period ranged from half a year to one year. Therefore, the price rise of needle coke had little impact on enterprises

at present, the stock of needle coke is fully digested, and the price rise touches the limit of the enterprise. If the negative electrode material manufacturers are difficult to digest the pressure of price rise by themselves, it may be directly transmitted to the downstream lithium battery negative electrode material enterprises, and the probability of negative electrode material market price rise in the second half of the year is very high. Moreover, in the second half of this year, the demand for needle coke from graphite electrode is still strong, and in the second half of this year, as the power battery market enters the peak season, the demand for needle coke from artificial graphite will also rise rapidly, the tight supply and demand pattern of needle coke will continue to maintain, and the price will remain high

at present, the purchase price of needle coke in cathode material enterprises is yuan/ton, and the price of needle coke required per kWh has soared to 15.5 yuan. The gross profit margin of negative electrode material manufacturers is about 30%, and the gross profit per kilowatt hour is 11 yuan. The rise in the price of needle coke directly touches the endurance limit of manufacturers, devouring the gross profit of manufacturers, and the downward transmission of costs is inevitable. In addition, the bargaining power of China's leading negative electrode material enterprises has been greatly improved, and the downward transmission of costs is imperative, and the price rise of negative electrode materials is almost a foregone conclusion